Northern Territory seasonal outlook
Sourced from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM)
*This seasonal outlook was correct at the time of publication. For the most up-to-date seasonal outlook, please go to the ‘climate outlook’ section of the BOM website.
The outlook for June to August 2019 indicates that:
- Drier conditions are expected across most of the NT
- Warmer than average days and nights are likely for almost the entire NT
Comments (sourced from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology)
El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
ENSO status: Watch
The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral
The tropical Pacific Ocean and atmosphere remain near El Niño thresholds, therefore the ENSO Outlook remains at El Niño WATCH, meaning there is approximately a 50 per cent chance of El Niño developing, however models indicate the tropical Pacific Ocean will ease away from El Niño levels, remaining neutral during winter.
El Niño typically results in below-average rainfall for southern Australia during autumn and for eastern Australia during winter and spring.
To see large versions of these images, go to the SOI and Outlooks tabs at Bureau of Meteorology ENSO Wrap-Up
Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)
Positive IOD likely for winter
Indian Ocean temperature forecasts show a positive IOD through the southern winter, which is likely to be the dominant climate driver for Australia.
In the Indian Ocean, waters off Sumatra have cooled over the past fortnight, with the IOD index now exceeding positive thresholds for three weeks. All but one of the climate models suggest positive IOD values will persist through winter and into spring. To be considered a positive IOD event, positive thresholds need to be maintained for at least two months.
Typically, a positive IOD brings below-average winter-spring rainfall for southern and central Australia.
This is currently being reflected in the rainfall outlook for the coming months.
Last updated: 24 September 2019